As I promised on March 19, 2010 I would be back to ridicule Mr. Stat Head himself, Nate Silver for his publicity stunt of predicting a Yankees collapse for the Core Four. With the 2010 MLB season officially over, I take great joy in showing how wrong Nate Silver was. I can already predict what his apologists will say: each member of the Core Four has battled injuries this year, blah blah blah. They would be missing the point. Nate Silver went on the record in Spring and said something very controversial- that the Yankees Core Four would be DONE! Then he gave SPECIFIC player projections for them. I am not pulling any punches here. How much leeway do you want to give to someone who acts like Nostradamus? 1%? 5%? 10% 15% 20%? How much variance is standard deviation for predicting baseball stats? You can be the judge. Here are the stats:
Nate Silver predicted Andy Pettitte would go 10-11, 4.70 ERA in 2010.
Andy Pettitte finished 11-3, 3.28. Strike one, Nate.
Nate Silver predicted Mariano Rivera would have 22 Saves, with an ERA of 3.53.
In reality, Mariano Rivera had 33 Saves, 1.80 ERA. Strike two, Nate.
Nate Silver predicted Jorge Posada would bat .263 with 12 homeruns.
On our earth, Jorge Posada batted .250 with 18 Homeruns. Strike three, Nate.
Nate Silver predicted Derek Jeter would bat .286, 11 homeruns, and have 10 stolen bases.
In real life, Derek Jeter batted .269, 10 homeruns, and 18 stolen bases. Strike four, Nate.
You may have to redo your system, buddy, since you didn’t match any stat 100%. Just because you predicted Jeter and Jorge would have lower batting averages and power from 2009 doesn’t make you right. It doesn’t take a genius to know that as the older a player gets at shortstop and catcher that their numbers would drop from their great 2009 seasons. The fact that you predicted a general trend for those two hitters is totally irrelevant to the numbers you generated, which seemed to have been pulled out of your scrotum.
Nate, your projections for Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera are self-explanatory.
Keep on writing your books, though, Nate, the stat heads love ‘em since you’re such an expert. I’m glad you’re in politics now, making your predictions.
Man, astrology has come such a long way in 2010.
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- World Series Game 6 Preview: Andy Pettitte vs Pedro Martinez
- Pettitte beats Cliff Lee
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- New York Yankees Pitcher Aces 1994-2011 (by WAR)
- Game 81: Pettitte beats Johan Santana
- Phil Hughes makes his bullpen debut as Yanks beat Rays
- Game 98: Yankees Pettitte sweeps Oakland A’s
- Andy Pettitte beats A’s; Giambi returns
- Andy Pettitte Retires
- Jorge Posada Hall of Fame? 10 Reasons Why He Should Be Elected
- Yankees Hitters WAR 1994-2011; Mets Hitters WAR 1985-2000
- Game 76: Pettitte ends Reds menance
- Yankees SWEEP Rays in DOUBLE HEADER
- 2009 Yankees postseason roster ALDS
- Forgettable Texas Yankees game
- Andy Pettitte Finishes Texas Rangers SWEEP
- Jorge Posada sticks by Roger Clemens