Nate Silver- a prince among Stat Heads- and highly respected writer and forecaster has predicted that the Yankees Four Horsemen- Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera will all crash at the same time this season. His [simplified] basis is that no team in history has ever relied on four core players in their mid-to-late 30′s like that, especially in such important roles (shortstop, catcher, closer, starter).
Using his sabermetric formula and computer algorithms, these are Nate Silver’s 2010 Yankees predictions:
Derek Jeter goes from a 2009 batting average of .334 to .286, loses home runs from 18 to 11, and stolen bases from 30 to 10. It looks like Nate is predicting an injury for Jeter- why else would Derek stop stealing? Other than that, a drop from 18 HR to 11 HR doesn’t really hurt the Yanks, especially since Derek was never known for power anyway. The batting average drop seems like a lot, but as long as Derek gets on base ahead of the big guns, it’s no big deal. There’s no question that Derek had one of his best seasons in 2009, so he is expected to regress a bit.
Jorge Posada drops from a .285 BA to .263, and his home run totals from 22 to 12. Again, looks like Nate is going on the record and predicting that Jorge Posada will be injured in 2010.
Andy Pettitte’s projection is much worst. He goes from 14-8, 4.06 ERA to 10-11 and 4.70. I’d be hard pressed to imagine Andy Pettitte having such a horrible year like that. I’d be shocked. I’m glad Nate signed his name to that prediction, so I can come back in at the end of the season and talk about this article.
Nate Silver has gone on the record and predicted an injury for Mariano Rivera: he goes from 44 saves to 22, and his ERA jumps from 1.76 to 3.53.
I’m not going to argue how Nate arrived at these predictions- but I will say that Mariano Rivera and ERA of 3.53 don’t belong in the same sentence.
Nate has gone on the record, so we shall see…his reputation is at stake, and I will make sure I follow up on this during the season.
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