Phil Hughes Scouting Report: Done

November 30, 2008

By DailySkew

Is [former] Yankees prospect Phil Hughes done? That’s what scouts and bloggers are saying- that he lost his fastball, and now projects to have a high-end career of Andy Benes, and a low-end of Carl Pavano. He apparantely throws as hard as Mike Mussina did last year, which means he needs to use his intelligence to get hitters out. More importantly, Hughes must stay healthy.

Here’s what Jim Callis of Baseball America says:

Hughes experienced his own ups and downs with the Peoria Javelinas. He earned AFL pitcher-of-the-week honors after his first outing and started the league’s all-star game, but he also got shelled by the Scorpions and missed a start with a torn fingernail.

Hughes mainly pitched off his 89-92 mph fastball and a plus curveball, a nice combination but not the 91-94 mph heater and knockout bender he showed down the stretch in Double-A two years ago. Whether he’ll regain his premium stuff once he stays healthy for an extended period remains to be seen. Whether he can stay healthy is uncertain, too, though he hasn’t had any arm-related problems since 2005, when he made two trips to the DL with shoulder tendinitis and a tired arm.

“I just don’t see how he dominated the lower levels of the minors so thoroughly,” a second scout said. “He’s not overpowering at all. But he has a solid fastball and the curveball is OK. I don’t see what all the fuss was about, but he’s probably still a No. 3.”

And from WasWatching:

Phil Hughes…at his worst will have a major league career much like Carl Pavano and at his best will have a major league career like Andy Benes. And, in all likelihood, Hughes’ career will probably fall somewhere in the middle between Pavano and Benes…and mirror someone along the level of Aaron Sele.

So there you have it…the young pitching stud who had the stuff to be an ace, who GM Brian Cashman held onto and refused to trade for Johan Santana or C.C. Sabathia now has to work his way back in Spring Training to even make the rotation. His stock has fallen, and Cashman doesn’t have a choice but to hold on to him, and pray the Hughes will be healthy next year to contribute to the team.

Depending on which scouting report you read, and which Arizona Fall League or AAA stats you want to look at, Phil is either on course to do well next year, or he has bottomed out.

I personally have faith in Phil, and know he has the mental toughness and maturity to success in the big leagues.