Is A.J. Burnett Overrated?

August 29, 2008

By DailySkew

A.J. Burnett, 31, has a player option to void the remaining 2 years of his contract this off-season.
A.J. has been a little disgruntled with Blue Jays front office (even though they gave him a 5-year, $55 million deal) and since AJ will finish the season with at least 16 wins, it’s likely he will opt out and become a free agent for a better deal.

This year, AJ has been getting a lot of press for being a “Yankees killer”, and trade deadline rumors were swirling that that Yanks were interested in acquiring him.

The fact is that AJ has always had “excellent stuff”, and is a power strikeout pitcher. Due to injuries, it seems as if his talent has never translated into the results you’d expect.

Let’s go over AJ’s history and accomplishments.

AJ was drafted by the NY Mets. During the famous fire sale of the Florida Marlins after their 1997 World Series victory, the Marlins salary dumped Al Leiter to the Mets for AJ.

AJ was poor in the minor leagues, although his fastball hit around 100 MPH. He was called up at age 22, and the Marlins were awful from 1999-2002, so they didn’t score many runs for him.

Pitching in a pitcher’s ballpark in Florida, AJ posted these stats:

YEAR, W/L, ERA, Innings Pitched (keep in mind 200IP a season is great)

1999: 4-2, 3.48, 41.1 IP (was up and down from minors)

2000: 3-7, 4.74, 82.7 IP (was up and down from minors)

2001: 11-12, 4.04, 173.1 IP (Pitched a no-hitter, but walked 9 men)

2002: 12-9, 3.30, 204.1 IP (His best year. Seemed to have realized his potential)

2003: 0-2, 4.70, 23 IP (Tommy John surgery; missed Marlins World Series win)

2004: 7-6, 3.68, 120 IP (returned in June, got hurt in September)

2005: 12-12, 3.44, 209 IP (An impending free agent, AJ, 28 years old, backstabbed his team by saying these comments: “We played scared. We managed scared. We coached scared. I’m sick of it, man. It’s depressing around here. A 3-0 ballgame, I give up one run and leave guys on base, it’s like they expect us to mess up. And when we do, they chew us out. There is no positive, nothing around here for anybody.“

2006: 10-8, 3.98, 135.7 (first year with the Blue Jays. Began the season on the DL when scar tissue from the 2003 surgery fell off. Came off in April, pitched, hurt his shoulder, and spent 2 months on the DL.)

2007: 10-8, 3.75, 165.2 (Was on the DL twice, and missed 48 games).

2008: AJ hurt his index finger (torn nail in a car door) earlier in the season which explains his high ERA. He will finish the season with 16+ wins, and perhaps hit 200 innings for the third time in his career.

Over 10 seasons, his career record is 85-75 (or 76 depending on tonight’s game) with an ERA of 3.87. During that time period, the league average ERA was 4.23, which puts his career ERA only 9% better than average. (The Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay has a career ERA 31% better than the rest of the pitchers in his era.)

Conclusions: AJ, who has always been confident about his abilities, believes he can get more than 2 years on the free agent market, and get more than $12 million dollars per year. The Blue Jays took a huge risk in before the 2006 season to sign him to a 5-year deal, and he pitched well when healthy, but does not have “ace” numbers.

His stats show that he is an above-average pitcher, but not a workhorse or #1 starter, and not someone to build a pitching staff around; he’s simply injured too often, and still has control issues.

The irony is that he looks like a superman when pitching against the Yankees. The joke is that since Hank Steinbrenner follows the “if you can’t beat him, join him” philosophy, if AJ becomes a Yankee next year, his stats will be worse because he won’t be pitching against them!

Now, IF and only IF, AJ can stay healthy and pitch in a post-season for a team, he would probably would do well in a short series. Frankly, I was hoping the Yanks could have traded for him this July and just rented him for the rest of the 2008 season.

But it would be pretty lame if any team signs this guy to a 3 to 5 year deal this offseason.

Yet I have a feeling that some General Managers will see him as an unhittable ace because of his 16+ wins, New York MEDIA hype, and strikeout totals this year.

So, to answer this blog post’s title: “Is A.J. Burnett Overrated?”

Yes, he is…sign him at your own risk, or at least have an understanding that he’s not an ace and will probably spend some time on the DL. Don’t break the bank on him, and have a backup plan. If AJ stays healthy, he will help you. But that’s a big IF.