Baseball pitchers: Who is the next big thing?

Every year, the MEDIA likes to hype up a few pitchers as “the next big thing”. Let’s take a look at some names that Peter Gammons, Internet message boards, and other “experts” have hyped.

Zach Duke was supposed to have saved the Pirates franchise, especially since he started the 2005 season at 8-2, 1.81. People were already anointing him a Cy Young candidate. But take a look what he’s done since 2006:

2006: 10-15, 4.47
2007: 3-8, 5.53
2008 (so far): 4-10, 5.13

“King” Felix Hernandez was hailed as the “next Doc Gooden” up in Seattle, and is still considered to have the best stuff for any pitcher in baseball.

2005: 4-4, 2.67
2006: 12-14, 4.52
2007: 14-7, 3.92
2008 (so far): 7-7, 3.04

He’s showing improvement, and at 22 years young, he probably will have a super career if he can stay healthy. Playing on a horrible team like the Mariners doesn’t help his Win/Loss record. That being said, you’d figure “the most talented pitcher in baseball” would have a lower ERA.

Phil Hughes was pegged as the best homegrown Yankees talent since Andy Pettitte, with the potential to be an ace. Unfortunately, injuries have made his two seasons look like this:

2007: 5-3, 4.46
2008 (so far): 0-4, 9.00

His teammate Joba Chamberlain, meanwhile, someone who kinda came out of nowhere:

2007: 2-0, 0.38
2008 (so far): 4-3, 2.63

How about Cole Hammels, a Peter Gammons favorite? Well, this #1 Phillies draft pick actually is better than most veterans, and seems to be a legit ace pitching in a hitter’s ballpark, although he hasn’t thrown 200 innings in any of his 3 seasons yet:

2006: 9-8, 4.08
2007: 15-5, 3.39
2008 (so far): 9-7, 3.37

Remember the Tigers were supposed to have the best young pitching in the game? Let’s take a look at actual production of their two young studs:

Justin Verlander

2005: 0-2, 7.15
2006: 17-9, 3.63
2007: 18-6, 3.66
2008 (so far): 8-12, 4.56

Jeremy Bonderman

2003: 6-19, 5.56
2004: 11-13, 4.89
2005: 14-13, 4.57
2006: 14-8, 4.08
2007: 11-9, 5.01
2008 (so far): 3-4, 4.29

Fausto Carmona is the reason why the Cleveland Indians let C.C. Sabathia go. In their minds, they already have a much cheaper ace. You can be the judge on that.

2006: 1-10, 5.42
2007: 19-8, 3.06
2008 (so far): 5-4, 4.46

Jonathan Broxton of the Dodgers is a setup man:

2005: 13.2 innings, 5.93
2006: 76.1 innings, 2.59
2007: 82 innings, 2.85
2008 (so far): 46.1 innings, 3.11

Let’s see the Boston Red Sox young guns in action:

Jon Lester, who beat cancer:

2006: 7-2, 4.76
2007: 4-0, 4.57
2008 (so far): 10-3, 3.14

“Mr. No Hitter” Clay Buchholz:
2007: 3-1, 1.59
2008 (so far): 2-7, 5.94

Justin Masterson:
2008 (so far): 4-3, 3.55

The New York Mets are the oldest team in the league, but have a 1st round pick named Mike Pelfrey:

2006: 2-1, 5.48
2007: 3-8, 5.57
2008 (so far): 10-7, 3.85

The Mets also caught huge heat for trading Scott Kazmir to the Tampa Bay Rays. Let’s see how Scott has performed with Tampa:

2004: 2-3, 5.67
2005: 10-9, 3.77
2006: 10-8, 3.24
2007: 13-9, 3.48
2008 (so far): 8-5, 3.20

Pretty good for a kid who pitched on a last place team for the 1st 4 years. He’s also been battling injuries this year, when the Rays are in 1st place.

The Minnesota Twins are grooming Fransisco Liriano to be the next big thing, but are limiting his innings pitched to avoid his service time and free agency. They even let Johan Santana walk.

2006: 1-2, 5.70
2007: 12-3, 2.16
2008 (so far): 1-3, 7.16

It’s amazing that none of these kids won 20 games or the Cy Young Award yet, even with all that talent and “stuff”. It’s also amazing how most of them don’t have super-low ERAs, have mediocore W/L records, and are generally not that consistent year to year. Wait a minute, check this guy out:

17-9, 2.60
24-4, 1.53
17-6, 2.84
15-7, 3.21
18-9, 3.19

Gotcha. That was Doc Gooden ages 19-23. Now that was real production. He was a kid who was able to translate his talent to on-field success. He was one in a kind. The bottom-line is that none of the above guys are like Doc, and the MEDIA should not even compare any newcomer to him unless they win 17 in their rookie year, with an ERA in the 2’s.

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